Navigating optimal treaty-shopping routes using a multiplex network model.

The international tax treaty system is a highly integrated and complex network. In this system, many multinational enterprises (MNEs) explore ways of reducing taxes by choosing optimal detour routes. Treaty abuse by these MNEs causes significant loss of tax revenues for many countries, but there is no systematic way of regulating their actions. However, it may be helpful to find a way of detecting the optimal routes by which MNEs avoid taxes and observe the effects of this behavior. In this paper, we investigate the international tax treaty network system of foreign investment channels based on real data and introduce a novel measure of tax-routing centrality and other centralities via network analysis. Our analysis of tax routing in a multiplex network reveals not only various tax-minimizing routes and their rates, but also new paths which cannot be found by navigating a single network layer. In addition, we identify strongly connected components of the multiplex tax treaty system with minimal tax shopping routes; more than 80 countries are included in this system. This means that there are far more pathways to be observed than can be detected on any given individual single layer. We provide a unified framework for analyzing the international tax treaty system and observing the effects of tax avoidance by MNEs.

The Mexico SimSmoke tobacco control policy model: Development of a simulation model of daily and nondaily cigarette smoking.

BACKGROUND: Nondaily smoking has been on the rise, especially in Mexico. While Mexico has strengthened its tobacco control policies, their effects on nondaily smokers have gone largely unexamined. We developed a simulation model to estimate the impact of tobacco control policies on daily and nondaily smoking in Mexico. METHODS: A previously validated Mexico SimSmoke model that estimated overall trends in smoking prevalence from 2002 through 2013 was extended to 2018 and adapted to distinguish daily and nondaily smoking prevalence. The model was then validated using data from Mexican surveys through 2016. To gauge the potential effects of policies, we compared the trends in smoking under current policies with trends from policies kept at their 2002 levels. RESULTS: Between 2002 and 2016, Mexico SimSmoke underestimated the reduction in male and female daily smoking rates. For nondaily smoking, SimSmoke predicted a decline among both males and females, while survey rates showed increasing rates in both genders, primarily among ages 15-44. Of the total reduction in smoking rates predicted by the model by 2018, tax policies account for more than 55%, followed by health warnings, cessation treatment, smoke-free air laws, and tobacco control spending. CONCLUSIONS: Although Mexico SimSmoke did not successfully explain trends in daily and nondaily smoking, it helps to identify gaps in surveillance and policy evaluation for nondaily smokers. Future research should consider appropriate measures of nondaily smoking prevalence, trajectories between daily and nondaily smoking, and the separate impact of tobacco control policies on each group.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and initiation among young people in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Universally, smoking cessation rates among established smokers are poor. Preventing young people from starting use of and becoming addicted to tobacco products remains a key strategy to end the tobacco epidemic. Previous country-specific studies have found that initiation of smoking tobacco use occurs predominantly among young people and have found mixed progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use among young people. Current and comparable estimates for all countries are needed to inform targeted interventions and policies. METHODS: We modelled two indicators: prevalence of current smoking tobacco use among young adults aged 15-24 years, and the age at which current smokers aged 20-54 years in 2019 began smoking regularly. We synthesised data from 3625 nationally representative surveys on prevalence of smoking and 254 on age at initiation. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to produce estimates of the prevalence of smoking and age of initiation by sex, for 204 countries and territories for each year between 1990 and 2019. FINDINGS: Globally in 2019, an estimated 155 million (95% uncertainty interval 150-160) individuals aged 15-24 years were tobacco smokers, with a prevalence of 20·1% (19·4-20·8) among males and 4·95% (4·64-5·29) among females. We estimated that 82·6% (82·1-83·1) of current smokers initiated between ages 14 and 25 years, and that 18·5% (17·7-19·3) of smokers began smoking regularly by age 15 years. Although some countries have made substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use among young people, prevalence in 2019 still exceeds 20% among males aged 15-24 years in 120 countries and among females aged 15-24 years in 43 countries. INTERPRETATION: The fact that most smokers start smoking regularly before age 20 years highlights the unique window of opportunity to target prevention efforts among young people and save millions of lives and avert health-care costs in the future. Countries can substantially improve the health of their populations by implementing and enforcing evidence-based tobacco control policies that prevent the next generation from initiating smoking. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. METHODS: We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. FINDINGS: In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15-19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: -1·21% [-1·26 to -1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (-0·94% [-1·72 to -0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. INTERPRETATION: Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

[Association of Annual Transition of Implementation of Nonsmoking at Eating and Drinking Establishments with Indices on Population/Household and Economy/Labor: Examination Using Prefectural Data].

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to clarify the relationship of the annual transition of implementation of nonsmoking at eating and drinking establishments with indices of population/household and economy/labor by prefecture. METHODS: The prefectural rates of eating and drinking establishments implementing nonsmoking (hereafter, nonsmoking rate) were computed in a year using the data from "Tabelog®". Forty-seven prefectures were classified by hierarchical cluster analysis into "prefecture clusters" 1 to 5 in descending order of the median of nonsmoking rates. The indices of population/household (e.g., percentage of the population aged 65 years and over and percentage of nuclear family household) and economy/labor (e.g., prefectural income per capita and percentage of construction and mining workers) were classified by hierarchical cluster analysis into 11 "index clusters", and the representative index in each index cluster was extracted from the results of the Jonckheere-Terpstra test. An ordinal logistic regression analysis was performed using the numbers 1 to 5 of prefecture clusters as dependent variables and the indices representing the index clusters as independent variables. RESULTS: The percentage of the population aged 65 years and over and the percentage of construction and mining workers were positively related to the order of prefectural clusters. CONCLUSIONS: To promote implementation of nonsmoking in eating and drinking establishments in prefectures especially in those with larger numbers of elderly people and construction and mining workers, it is important to inform the persons in charge that implementation of nonsmoking does not affect the number of customers.

La desnormalización del tabaquismo o la pérdida de oportunidad / Denormalization of smoking or the loss of an opportunity

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Exposición al humo de segunda mano en adolescentes escolarizados de Tunja, Colombia, 2017 / Exposure to second-hand smoke in school adolescents from Tunja (Colombia), 2017

INTRODUCCIÓN: Los adolescentes expuestos al humo de segunda mano cuentan con mayor riesgo de morbilidad, convirtiéndose en uno de principales problemas de salud pública prevenibles en Latinoamérica. OBJETIVO: Determinar la prevalencia y los factores sociodemográficos asociados a la exposición de cigarrillos de segunda mano, en casa y fuera de ella, en adolescentes escolarizados de Tunja, Colombia. METODOLOGÍA: Estudio descriptivo transversal en 1.100 escolarizados de Tunja, Colombia, entre 11 y 19 años de edad. La información se tomó mediante una encuesta de forma autoadministrada y totalmente anónima. Para el análisis se estimaron proporciones de exposición durante todos los días y el promedio de días de exposición al humo de segunda mano durante una semana tradicional; para las asociaciones se realizaron modelos de regresión logística ordinal y regresión binomial negativa. RESULTADOS: La edad promedio de los participantes fue 14,5 años, con predominio del sexo femenino (59%). La exposición de humo del cigarrillo de segunda mano en casa mostró una prevalencia para todos los días del 4,9%, de 1 a 6 días del 14,7%, con un promedio de exposición de 0,7 días, DS 1,7. Adicionalmente, la prevalencia de exposición al humo de segunda mano fuera de casa reportó frecuencias superiores, donde para todos los días es del 8%, de uno a 6 días del 34,1%, con un promedio de exposición de 1,5 días, DS 2,2. CONCLUSIÓN: La prevalencia de exposición al humo de segunda mano en los adolescentes de Tunja fue alta; se recomiendan intervenciones a nivel escolar y familiar para contrarrestar este problema

INTRODUCTION: Adolescents exposed to second-hand smoke have a higher risk of morbidity. This is one of the main preventable public health problems in Latin America. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence and sociodemographic factors associated with exposure to second-hand tobacco smoke at home and out-of-home, in school adolescents from Tunja-Colombia. METHODOLOGY: This cross-sectional study included 1100 school students, aged between 11 and 19 years. The information was obtained using a self-administered and totally anonymous questionnaire. For the analysis, the proportions of everyday exposure and the mean number of days of exposure to second-hand smoke during a regular week were estimated. For the associations, ordinal logistic regression and negative binomial regression models were performed. RESULTS: The average age of the participants was 14.5 years, with the majority (59%) being female. As regards second-hand tobacco smoke exposure at home, an everyday prevalence of 4.9% was found, from 1 to 6 days of 14.7%, with a mean exposure of 0.7 days (SD 1.7). Additionally, there was a higher prevalence of exposure to second-hand smoke out-of-home: every day 8%, from 1 to 6 days of 34.1%, with a mean exposure of 1.5 days (SD 2.2). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of exposure to second-hand smoke in adolescents of Tunja was high. Interventions at school and family level are recommended to counteract this problem

Differences in smokers' awareness of the health risks of smoking before and after introducing pictorial tobacco health warnings: findings from the 2012-2017 international tobacco control (ITC) Netherlands surveys.

BACKGROUND: As of May 2016, pictorial health warnings (PHWs) showing the harms of smoking were implemented in the European Union. After one year they had to be fully implemented. We studied changes in awareness of the health risks of smoking after implementation of PHWs among smokers from the Netherlands, whether the trend before the implementation changed after the implementation, and whether there were differences between subgroups. METHODS: We used survey data from six yearly waves of the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Netherlands Survey from 2012 to 2017. The number of participating smokers ranged between 1236 and 1604 per wave. Data were analyzed using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) analyses. RESULTS: Indicators of awareness of the health risks of smoking that did not change between 2015 and 2017 were perceived susceptibility (ß = 0.043, p = 0.059) and perceived severity (ß = - 0.006, p = 0.679) regarding lung problems. Perceived susceptibility, however, was more pronounced between 2015 and 2017 than between 2012 and 2015(p value of interaction: p = 0.044). Noticing information about the dangers of smoking (ß = 0.119, p < 0.001) and knowledge about the health risks of smoking (ß = 0.184, p < 0.001) increased between 2015 and 2017. These increases were both more pronounced when compared to 2012-2015 (p values of interactions: p = 0.002 and p < 0.001 respectively). Compared to high educated smokers, low educated smokers (ß = - 1.137, p < 0.001) and moderate educated smokers (ß = - 0.894, p < 0.001) were less knowledgeable about the health risks of smoking in 2016 and 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Introducing PHWs coincided with an increase in smokers' knowledge about the health risks of smoking. Dutch tobacco control policy and campaigns should focus on improving Dutch smokers' awareness of the health risks of smoking even more, especially among low educated smokers.

Changes in adolescent smoking with implementation of local smoke-free policies in Indonesia: Quasi-experimental repeat cross-sectional analysis of national surveys of 2007 and 2013.

BACKGROUND: Banning smoking from public places may prevent adolescent smoking, but there is little evidence on impact of smoke-free policies (SFPs) from low and middle-income countries. This study assessed to what extent the adoption of local SPFs in Indonesia between 2007 and 2013 associated with adolescent smoking. METHODS: Data on 239,170 adolescents (12-17 years old) were derived from the 2007 and 2013 national health surveys in 497 districts and 33 provinces. This study compared 2013 survey respondents living in districts/provinces that adopted SFPs between 2007 and 2013, with 2007 respondents and 2013 respondents in districts/provinces that did not adopt policies. Multilevel logistic regression analysis assessed whether SFP was associated with daily and non-daily smoking. We controlled for survey year, SFP in 2007, socio-demographics, and district characteristics. RESULTS: Strong district SFPs was significantly associated with lower odds of daily smoking (OR:0.81, 95 %CI:0.69-0.97), but non-significantly with non-daily smoking (OR:0.89, 95 %CI:0.76-1.05). Strong provincial SFPs was not associated with daily smoking (OR:1.02, 95 %CI:0.84-1.25), but was associated with higher odds of non-daily smoking (OR:1.22, 95 %CI:0.99-1.51). Moderately strong SFPs did not consistently show associations in the same direction. For example, moderately strong provincial SFP was associated with higher odds of daily smoking (OR:1.27, 95 %CI:1.11-1.46) and lower odds of non-daily smoking (OR:0.82, 95 %CI:0.72-0.93). CONCLUSION: We did not detect a consistent short-term effect of district and province-level smoke-free policies on adolescent smoking in Indonesia. Weak implementation and poor compliance may compromise effectiveness, which would call for improvement of SFP implementation in Indonesia.

Falsas creencias sobre el consumo de tabaco. Mentiras peligrosas / False beliefs on use of tobacco. Dangerous lies

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Population-level predictors of changes in success rates of smoking quit attempts in England: a time series analysis.

AIMS: To quantify associations between the success of smoking quit attempts and factors that have varied throughout 2007-2018 at a population level. DESIGN: time series analysis using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogeneous Input (ARIMAX) modelling. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Data were aggregated from 54 847 past-year smokers taking part in the Smoking Toolkit Study which involves monthly repeated cross-sectional household surveys of individuals aged 16+ in England. MEASUREMENTS: The input series were: (1) attempts at smoking reduction using (a) e-cigarettes and (b) nicotine replacement therapy (NRT); (2) use during a quit attempt of (a) e-cigarettes, (b) NRT over-the-counter, (c) medication on prescription and (d) face-to-face behavioural support; (3) use of roll-your-own tobacco; (4) prevalence of (a) smoking and (b) non-daily smoking; (5) tobacco control mass media expenditure; (6) expenditure on smoking; (7) smoker characteristics in the form of (a) high motivation to quit, (b) average age, (c) socio-economic status and (d) cigarette consumption; (8) implementation of tobacco control policies; and (9) quit attempt rate. FINDINGS: The licensing of NRT for harm reduction was associated with a 0.641% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.073-1.209, P = 0.027] increase in the mean point prevalence of the success rate of quit attempts. For every 1% increase in the mean point prevalence of e-cigarette use and use of prescription medication during a quit attempt, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.106% (95% CI = 0.011-0.201, P = 0.029) and 0.143% (95% CI = 0.009-0.279, P = 0.038), respectively. For every 1% increase in the mean expenditure on tobacco control mass media, the mean point prevalence of successful quit attempts increased by 0.046% (95% CI = 0.001-0.092, P = 0.046). Other associations were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: In England between 2007 and 2018, licensing of nicotine replacement therapy for use in harm reduction, greater use of e-cigarettes and prescription medications during a quit attempt and higher expenditure on tobacco control mass media were all associated with higher success rates of quit attempts.

Accounting for the consequences of tobacco dependence on cravings, self-efficacy, and motivation to quit: consideration of identity concerns

Tobacco dependence has been found to increase smoking cravings, and reduce both self-efficacy and motivation to quit. The present research proposes to test the hypothesis that such negative consequences are related to identity concerns and should thus appear more strongly in dependent smokers with a high (vs. low) smoker identity. In two correlational studies, daily smokers (Study 1: N = 237; Study 2: N = 154) were assessed for tobacco dependence, smoker identity, self-efficacy, craving to smoke (Study 1), and motivation to quit (Study 2). Among smokers who declared to be strongly dependent, those scoring high in smoker identity reported more smoking cravings (Beta = .28, p = .008, 95% CI [0.084, 0.563], = .03) and less motivation to quit than those scoring low (Beta = -.58, p = .003, 95% CI [-1.379, -0.282], = .06). Smoker identity was unrelated to these variables among non-dependent smokers (ps > .40). The relationship between tobacco dependence and self-efficacy was not affected by smoker identity (ps > .45). Through these studies, we provided evidence that the implications of tobacco dependence on smoking maintenance and difficulties in quitting may be, in part, explained by identity mechanisms

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Youth smoking and anti-smoking policies in North Dakota: a system dynamics simulation study.

BACKGROUND: The current study utilizes system dynamics to model the determinants of youth smoking and simulate effects of anti-smoking policies in the context of North Dakota, a state with one of the lowest cigarette tax rates in the USA. METHODS: An explanatory model was built to replicate historical trends in the youth smoking rate. Three different policies were simulated: 1) an increase in cigarette excise taxes; 2) increased funding for CDC-recommended comprehensive tobacco control programs; and 3) enforcement of increased retailer compliance with age restrictions on cigarette sales. RESULTS: The explanatory model successfully replicated historical trends in adolescent smoking behavior in North Dakota from 1992 to 2014. The policy model showed that increasing taxes to $2.20 per pack starting in 2015 was the most effective of the three policies, producing a 32.6% reduction in youth smoking rate by 2032. Other policies reduced smoking by a much lesser degree (7.0 and 3.2% for comprehensive tobacco control program funding and retailer compliance, respectively). The effects of each policy were additive. CONCLUSIONS: System dynamics modeling suggests that increasing cigarette excise taxes are particularly effective at reducing adolescent smoking rates. More generally, system dynamics offers an important complement to conventional analysis of observational data.